Gujarat election result has ushered in a new era of pro-incumbency voting | OPINION

PM Modi’s incredible work ethics and his reassuring persona have set the bar so high that opposition parties are nowhere in contention, barring the contrived media hype they manufacture.

By LAKSHY DREAM FOUNDATION GLOBAL NEWS: A couple of weeks ago, my co-traveller on a flight was a gregarious elderly man from the financial world. He recognised me and we got chatting. In an election season, it is impossible not to discuss poll outcomes and hence, in no time, we were discussing the Gujarat elections.

The gentleman made an interesting observation: “Just a decade ago, the common voter sentiment on the eve of elections used to be: vote for change to ensure accountability. Now, it is just the opposite: vote for continuity to ensure that the pace of development continues.”

He went on to explain how investors in the financial world now dreaded any non-BJP verdict. “We want Modi to continue as PM for eternity. He is good for the country.” The gentleman shared the sentiments of the business world. His commentary was music to my ears.

On December 8, when the Gujarat Assembly election results came out, I was reminded of this brief conversation. BJP’s incredibly emphatic win, after being in power for 27 years in Gujarat, outlines one thing very clearly: that people are now positively habituated to the party.

PM Modi’s incredible work ethics and his reassuring persona have set the bar so high that opposition parties are nowhere in contention, barring the contrived media hype they manufacture. With a 54 per cent vote-share, winning 86 per cent of the total seats and a clean sweep of all tribal seats – which was earlier considered BJP’s weak point - the party is clearly at its peak. In fact, the party at this point is perhaps stronger than what Congress at its peak was. Moreover, this election result has ushered in a new Gujarat model.

From here on, anti-incumbency will cease to be a factor in Indian politics for at least a decade or so. Instead, it will be pro-incumbency and continuity that will influence people’s verdict. Therefore, it will not be unrealistic to expect a 50 per cent plus vote share for the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, translating into 350-400 seats.

LAKSHY DREAM FOUNDATION GLOBAL MART

What is the key factor responsible for this continuous expansion?

The single most important factor is the party’s ability to draw and reach out to newer sections of society, seamlessly, effortlessly, and all the time. In this context, the massive tribal outreach of PM Modi in the last three years seems to have yielded tangible results. The clean sweep of the 27 tribal-dominated constituencies of Gujarat - traditionally a Congress bastion, tells the story. With 100 per cent homes in Gujarat covered by the Nal Se Jal scheme, it is only obvious that the most crucial beneficiaries here have been the poor tribal families. The Ujjwala Yojana, the Swachch Bharat initiative, and the Aspirational Districts Program have all led to clearly visible improvements in the backward regions. In this situation, Rahul Gandhi’s belabored attempts to draw a distinction between ‘adivasi’ and ‘vanvasi’ cuts no ice with the tribal voters.

As far as AAP is concerned, the Gujarat results have only strengthened its reputation of being a “zamanat japt” party - a party which contests elections only to forfeit its candidates’ deposits. The AAP has an illusory presence outside Delhi and Punjab.

The other key factor that has contributed to this historic win is the party’s ability to put in unimagined levels of hard work, unforeseen in Indian politics before. To those critics who constantly crib about BJP top leaders and ministers constantly being in campaign mode, they seem to not realise that unlike the Congress party, the BJP does not operate like an NGO.

Winning is indispensable in politics because a loser can only meander across the country aimlessly. Transforming a nation requires relentless zeal. If the party under PM Modi campaigns hard in elections, his government works 10 times harder to ensure deliverance of crucial welfare schemes. Unlike the AAP which is facing a huge credibility crisis because of the disparity between its promises and deliveries, PM Modi is reaping the benefits of credible fulfillment of promises.